An article from the HBR: What will the work-life balance look like after the pandemic

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The impact of the pandemic, and after, on the oil industry

What do the crude oil prices tell us about long-term oil demand?

During the week when OPEC and Russia seemingly agreed to a 10% cut in production, oil prices continue to fall from US$ 27.30 to levels not seen since 2nd January 2002. Is this a harbinger of things to come? In my previous post, I mused on the possibility that our enforced home-working habit may have more permanent implications, not only on our own work but on our need to commute every day. Do we really need to get on a plane for a business meeting in another city or country? And, if we don't, what will be the knock-on effect on our demand for transport systems: private cars, aircraft? And, if we don't need these, will the demand for crude oil and its derivatives remain low?
Throw into the debate the, very proper, demonizing of plastics, to further exacerbate the drop in demand.

If so, what will be the effect on those economies that rely heavily on oil: Russia, and many countries in the Middle East, even the US's own WTI production where I understand that the cost of production in fracking is about US$25 a barrel - with prices around US$20 a barrel the implications are clear. However, those countries more reliant on oil revenue may see a rapid decline in fortunes. Will this have social implications? Many of these countries are effective dictatorships today; will their populations standstill when the money runs out?

Not all countries have followed the examples of Norway - with a sovereign wealth fund worth over US$ one trillion (US$ 195k for each citizen), or Dubai - which has developed a world-class service center in the desert.

Questions, questions, speculation, speculation. Let's have your ideas (comment section below).

P3Musings - what's it all about?

To unpack the blog's title: P3Musings = Pope's Post-Pandemic Musings.

Sitting in my room/office here in the village of Valbonne, France, in a house built in 1519 - the year of a pandemic in South America; Martin Luther was debating papal authority in Leipzig; and in China, a Ming Dynasty general put down the Ning Rebellion merely by threatening to use a French-derived simple cannon-type device - it is hard not to be a little philosophical about the future.

In such surroundings, I began to reflect on the world today and wonder what the world will look like after the COVID-19. Looking at the events that occurred during the year in which my home was built, those seemingly innocuous events were a foretaste of massive changes to come: the invasions and, mainly (we hope) unintended, genocide of the native populations of the Americas; the beginning of the end of the Pope's Western world domination; and the increasingly destructive wars of the future.

So, what will our world look like after the current pandemic? Looking at what we know now, this virus not going to slowly die away so that the world can go back to where it was. The threatened opening up of countries previously in lock-down is already having serious consequences: in Harbin, China, a substantial proportion of the Chinese citizens returning to their home from Russia are infected, risking a resurgence of infection that seemed (at least according to Chinese official media) to be under control. Further, it begs the question: if so many returning home are infected, what is the real infection rate in Russia itself?  Further, it warns us that pre-mature opening might lead to major re-infections worldwide at a time when political leaders are pushing to restart the economies that keep them in power. But, opening-up will happen, no doubt a long time before effective vaccines become available to the general populations around the world. Then what?

And, when vaccines are available, to whom will they be applied first. Will the less developed countries be last in the queue - as always? In the meantime, what will happen to their already devastated economies? Will they become even more vulnerable to take over by local, or foreign, dictatorships? Or, will they be even more vulnerable to resource-grabbing economies more powerful than themselves.

On the home front, for us in the developed countries, will our enforced change of habits to working from home change the way we are prepared to work in the future? Companies, individuals, even schools, are discovering that online working has its benefits. So, if we can work from home, do we really needed to commute to an office or a school every day? If we don't, then why do we need big expensive offices in city centers? Do we really need a car, or can we manage with the occasional Uber or pubic transport? If that is the case, what does this mean for the car industry?

Do we really need to shop or, as now, get much of our usual stuff delivered? And, if much of our stuff is being delivered, do the retailers need big, bright, expensive shops?  Taking all of these, do we really need to live in a city - to make daily commuting easier - or can we live anywhere?