15 April 2020

The impact of the pandemic, and after, on the oil industry



What do the crude oil prices tell us about long-term oil demand?



During the week when OPEC and Russia seemingly agreed to a 10% cut in production, oil prices continue to fall from US$ 27.30 to levels not seen since 2nd January 2002. Is this a harbinger of things to come? In my previous post, I mused on the possibility that our enforced home-working habit may have more permanent implications, not only on our own work but on our need to commute every day. Do we really need to get on a plane for a business meeting in another city or country? And, if we don't, what will be the knock-on effect on our demand for transport systems: private cars, aircraft? And, if we don't need these, will the demand for crude oil and its derivatives remain low?
Throw into the debate the, very proper, demonizing of plastics, to further exacerbate the drop in demand.

If so, what will be the effect on those economies that rely heavily on oil: Russia, and many countries in the Middle East, even the US's own WTI production where I understand that the cost of production in fracking is about US$25 a barrel - with prices around US$20 a barrel the implications are clear. However, those countries more reliant on oil revenue may see a rapid decline in fortunes. Will this have social implications? Many of these countries are effective dictatorships today; will their populations standstill when the money runs out?

Not all countries have followed the examples of Norway - with a sovereign wealth fund worth over US$ one trillion (US$ 195k for each citizen), or Dubai - which has developed a world-class service center in the desert.

Questions, questions, speculation, speculation. Let's have your ideas (comment section below).

1 comment:

  1. A recent post on Linked In say it all:
    https://www.linkedin.com/feed/news/the-world-wants-a-lot-less-oil-4539091/

    ReplyDelete